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- W2207533462 abstract "This paper is concerned with a review of some basic concepts and simple estimation techniques related to design flood estimates. The value of the return period is questioned as a basis for design work. As is well known, the N-year return period discharge is not a very helpful design value for a planned N-year lifetime. The distinction is made between the average (and quantile) discharges of N-year maxima, and the discharge exceeded once on average every N years. The extra information can be incorporated into the standard return period data plot through the use of additional time axes. The correct definition of time scale is particularly important when a progressive change in external conditions causes the flood distribution to change over time. A simple extreme-value model is presented for estimating future sea level extremes (or stage heights at river mouths) given a specified greenhouse-related sea level rise. The problem of intermediate parameter estimation in obtaining design floods can be avoided using simple flexible empirical procedures based on nonparametric estimation of distribution functions. Alternatively, distribution-free confidence intervals can be constructed using just the number of past exceedances. For parametric design flood estimation, n-point graphical estimation of the flood prediction function is advocated. This allows the parametric function to be passed through the data points, but located so as to take into account a subjective feel for the reliability of individual points." @default.
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- W2207533462 date "1989-01-01" @default.
- W2207533462 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W2207533462 title "A Brief Overview of Some Techniques of Design Analysis for Future River Floods and Sea Level Extremes" @default.
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