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- W2208261036 abstract "The aggregate prediction from a group of forecasters often outperformsthe individual forecasts from experts. In this paper, wepresent an improvement on the traditional “Wisdom of Crowds” aggregation technique that uses extra information elicited fromforecasters along with their prediction. An analysis of 64 forecastingquestions answered by a group of 1000+ novice predictorsshows that applying heuristic weighting rules to forecasts resultsin a 28% improvement in the accuracy of the group’s predictions." @default.
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- W2208261036 date "2012-10-19" @default.
- W2208261036 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W2208261036 title "Heuristics for Improving Forecast Aggregation" @default.
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