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- W2208272057 abstract "Assessments of the spread of HIV infections are needed to formulate and develop health policy to allocate and mobilize resources and to monitor measures taken to control the spread of HIV. Many scientists use different models to estimate current HIV and future HIV prevalence. In South Africa predictions vary from 27-70% of the adult black population infected with HIV. Variation such as this also occurs in the US (as much as 233%) and England (as much as 200%). Scientists do expect variation however since problems occur in definitions reporting lags and undercounts and lack of key studies and data. These problems influence subgroups differently. Subgroups may consist of drug users prostitutes homosexuals heterosexuals and children as well as regions e.g. inner city and rural areas. When assessing various models health care planners should consider comprehensiveness soundness of the empirical base reasonableness of assumptions and adequacy of the corrections for data biases. Comprehensiveness of the models ranges between simple extrapolations and microsimulation models with varying models in the middle such as back calculation method and the macrosimulation model. Yet the most comprehensive models are the least empirically based models since they do not have key data and therefore are not the most sound models. Since key data on input and output variables and research quantifying data biases are lacking scientists who look at HIV and AIDS tend not to consider data biases. 2 statisticians propose a comprehensive model for medium term estimation of the prevalence of HIV infection in the South African heterosexual population. Advantages of this model are that it can be refined as key data inputs become available identifies urgent research areas and helps planners to understand the HIV epidemic and to determine the potential effect of behavioral changes." @default.
- W2208272057 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2208272057 date "1992-01-18" @default.
- W2208272057 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2208272057 title "Statistical approaches to determine the current extent and future prevalence of HIV infection in South Africa." @default.
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