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• W220961096 abstract "The emergence of five independent states, carved out of what used to be Soviet Central Asia, has changed the strategic balance in southwest Asia. What this will mean for global security in the long run is still far from clear. However, it is already possible to draw some conclusions about the immediate and short-term implications. A few things are already perfectly obvious. The new states of Central Asia are not pseudo-nations. At the same time, they have not yet managed to fully break away from Moscow's influence. The Central Asian states have to varying degrees managed to institutionalize their independence. Their degrees of success in this regard have been influenced by a number of factors, including geographic location, the quality of leadership, the level of political stability at the time of independence, and the capacity for independent economic development. Moscow can no longer dictate developments in this part of the world. At the same time, Russia is unwilling, and some might say unable, to withdraw fully from the region. Russian leaders believe that they must continue to defend Central Asia's borders to keep Russia itself safe. In part, this is because approximately ten million ethnic Russians still live in the region, and the Russian government is not willing to abandon those people to whatever fate may have in store. Russia is also increasingly aware of its own Muslim population and has a desire to remain on good terms with the Central Asian states to appease the Muslim, and not only the Russian, political constituency. Nor is Russia willing to withdraw economically from Central Asia. Policymakers in Moscow continue to assert their right to profit from Soviet-era investments made in the region, and the Russian energy industry has been especially eager to get a piece of the action in foreign development plans for the region's plentiful oil and gas deposits. Central Asia's vast wealth has attracted strong Western interest in the region. However, from Russia's point of view, what is most distressing is the potential of a growing American presence. Claims that the Caspian Sea will be the Persian Gulf of the twenty-first century foster Russian nationalist suspicions that the collapse of the USSR was little more than a Western plot to profit economically from the vast wealth of the Soviet republics. While U.S. policymakers forcefully claim that America's interests lie solely in helping these states secure their unexpected independence, Russians see such safeguards as designed to limit Russian involvement. Political leaders in Afghanistan, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey also look to events in Central Asia with keen interest. On the one hand, Central Asia is a new market of fifty million people, and goods from most of those nations are already beginning to saturate that market. On the other hand, Central Asia is directly affected by what goes on in neighboring countries. Nowhere is this clearer than in Afghanistan, whose civil war has become interwoven with events in war-tom Tajikistan. Finally, there is the question of how the Central Asian states understand their own independence. Central Asia's leaders complain to Western interlocutors of unfair pressure from Russia, while simultaneously they are willing to take aid and assistance from Moscow. This is especially true for security relations. While the leaders of all of these states want the profits of independence, none wants full responsibility for the liabilities, and as yet none of them can fully protect itself from either external or internal threats. A Bird's Eye View of Central Asia The five states of Central Asia are quite distinct. At the same time, all five still share interconnected transport, energy, and water resource networks. They also are quite similar culturally and linguistically, although what seem to outsiders to be small distinctions often appear much greater to those within those societies. …" @default.
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• W220961096 date "1997-09-22" @default.
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• W220961096 title "The Central Asian States: An Overview of Five Years of Independence" @default.
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