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• W2215610416 abstract " What do we need to study the influence of climate change simulated by global coupled models of the current generation upon the Peru-Chile upwelling system is the main question addressed in this PhD thesis. Thanks to a dynamical downscaling approach performed with the ROMS model (Regional Oceanic Modelling System) at an eddy-resolving resolution (1/6°), we aim at understanding the processes that are likely to control possible future changes in the ocean circulation over this region influenced by ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation). A study of the physical mechanisms that control ENSO-like variability in PI (pre-industrial) simulations performed with CGCMs (Coupled General Circulation Models) of the WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model ensemble (the so-called IPCC-AR4 models ) allows identifying the most reliable models in terms of equatorial variability. It makes use of an intermediate coupled model of the tropical Pacific with prescribed mean stratification and wind forcing in order to derive explicitly the tendency terms of the mixed layer heat budget. Such analysis allows classifying the models according to the dominant ENSO process: zonal advective feedback or thermocline feedback. Models with a hybrid feedback like in the observations best represent the coupled processes that control SST variability, which makes us assume that they provide the highest confidence levels in terms of prediction of ENSO evolution under global warming. Among them, two CGCMs (IPSL-CM4 and INGV-ECHAM4) best reproduce mean temperature and currents as well as their intraseasonal-to-interannual variabilities at the western boundary of the Peru-Chile domain (100°W) and are therefore retained for downscaling experiments over the HCS (Humboldt Current System) region. CGCM outputs from the PI and 4xCO2 (CO2 quadrupling) simulations for the oceanic part are used directly as open boundary conditions for ROMS, whereas a high-resolution (~50km) CGCM-derived wind product obtained from a statistical downscaling procedure is used together with raw CGCM air-sea fluxes for the atmospheric forcing. A regional control run using ROMS is performed with realistic boundary conditions (ORCA05 ½° global reanalysis) and atmospheric forcing (ERS satellite winds and ERA-40 global atmospheric reanalysis fluxes) over 1992-2000 in order to provide a benchmark for regional climate change simulations. This control simulation is also used to document the impact of intraseasonal equatorial Kelvin waves on nearshore variability, and illustrates the importance of the remote forcing of equatorial origin for the regional dynamics of the HCS. In particular, it is found that depending on the vertical baroclinic mode, the critical latitude in the model is about 5 to 15 degrees higher than that predicted by linear free baroclinic wave theory, especially for 120-day oscillations. The regional model features significant offshore variability south of the theoretical critical latitude like in satellite data, underlining the limits of linear theory in the eastern South Pacific. Overall this work proposes a methodology for climate change downscaling experiments, which are the necessary link between global warming simulations at the global scale and impact studies on ecosystems, fisheries, agriculture and society at the local scale. The work also contributes to improve our understanding of some physical mechanisms of interest for such regional climate change studies." @default.
• W2215610416 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2215610416 date "2009-12-14" @default.
• W2215610416 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2215610416 title "Impact of climate change in the Humboldt Current System simulated by a regional ocean model" @default.
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