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- W2225090003 abstract "The catchments of the Mount Lofty Ranges (MLR), South Australia (SA), provide approximately 60% of Adelaide's water supply. Recent years of low rainfall, combined with climate change projections of a continuing drying trend, highlight significant challenges to water resource management for this region. Regional rainfall simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) is not suitable input for hydrological models due to its coarse spatial resolution. Thus stochastic downscaling is used to simulate multi-site, daily rainfall conditional on large-scale atmospheric forcing. Stochastic downscaling is shown to reproduce the 1958-2003 observed rainfall variability and trends for a network of 20 stations across the MLR. These stations were selected based on their data quality and relevance to hydrological modelling. Driving the stochastic downscaling model with atmospheric predictors from the CSIRO Mk3.0 GCM, for A2 and B2 scenarios, provides multiple realisations of projected multi-site, daily rainfall. These are assessed in terms of changes to regional rainfall patterns, timing and amount. When linked to a hydrological model, this modelling framework allows the quantification of the potential impacts of projected climate change on stream flow. Results for the River Torrens catchment in the MLR highlight the non-linear response of run-off processes to these projected rainfall changes. Sensitivity to changes in evaporation and evapo-transpiration is also assessed. Future work will apply this framework to multiple regions across SA to comprehensively assess hydrological response to projected climate change." @default.
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- W2225090003 date "2008-01-01" @default.
- W2225090003 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2225090003 title "Stochastically Downscaled Rainfall Projections and Modelled Hydrological Response for the Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia" @default.
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