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- W2234166427 abstract "The paper is aimed at the evaluation of quality and thesuccess-rate of the past Czech National Bank's forecastscreated from 2004 until mid-2006. It strives to identify thefactors which have caused deviations from reality in the pastforecasts and could contribute to non-fulfilment of theannounced inflation target. There are three groups of factors,which have most often contributed to the overvaluation of thehistorical forecasts: ex post incorrect setting up of theequilibrium trajectories, non-fulfilment of some exogenouspresumptions together with an influence of unexpected shocks,and inaccurate capture of some behavioural relationships withinthe model apparatus. According to a comparison of historicaland adjusted forecasts against reality, forecasts producedduring the reviewed period of time are diverted on averagetowards higher inflation, lower real growth, and moredepreciated nominal exchange rate. Consistently, the impliedtrajectory of the interest rate is higher than reality.Nevertheless, the deviations of the basic macro-economicvariables gradually decrease with the course of time." @default.
- W2234166427 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2234166427 date "2008-01-01" @default.
- W2234166427 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2234166427 title "Evaluation of the Quality and Success Rate of Forecasts - AHistorical Overview" @default.
- W2234166427 hasPublicationYear "2008" @default.
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