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- W2235577822 abstract "AIDS was clinically recognized for the first time in Costa Rica in 1984 in 4 hemophiliacs. Currently a large and expanding AIDS epidemic is underway among homosexual and bisexual men. An ongoing cohort study of homosexual men showed a steady increase in HIV seroprevalence from 5% by mid-1985 to 18% by early 1988. Bisexual men were infected at about half the rate of homosexual men. Few AIDS cases have been detected in people other than those with homosexual or hemophiliac risk. All AIDS cases diagnosed in Costa Rica from 1984 through December 31 1989 were included in a study to project the number of AIDS cases for the period 1990-94. The quadratic and power equations used to project the AIDS epidemic fit better than the linear exponential and logarithmic equations with the quadratic model yielding projections for AIDS from all risks which were in agreement with the observed trend of the epidemic. Projections for the 5-year period suggest that the epidemic will evolve mainly among homosexual and bisexual men without any unusual significant increase in the heterosexual population in the near future. Despite the risk of applying heuristic methods to forecast the AIDS epidemic in small countries such as Costa Rica the approach is justified because it increases awareness among health authorities and policymakers it is useful in estimating medical and psychosocial needs and it helps in assessing the potential socioeconomic impact of AIDS." @default.
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- W2235577822 date "1990-01-01" @default.
- W2235577822 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2235577822 title "AIDS in Costa Rica: estimates for 1990-1994 by the quadratic and other simple equations." @default.
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