Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2244287152> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 54 of
54
with 100 items per page.
- W2244287152 abstract "The paper compares and contrast the bias, accuracy, and uncertainty in US housing start forecasts. In comparison to the large forecast accuracy literature to have considered macroeconomic series a relatively smaller number of papers have considered the accuracy of property forecasts. Even in this case the majority have looked at commercial real estate. Papers such as McAllister at al. (2007), Bond & Mitchell (2011) and Matysiak et al. (2012) all consider aspects of the IPF Consensus Forecasts for the UK commercial market. Two recent papers (Pierdzioch et al., 2012, 2013) do consider forecasts of housing starts. Our analysis compliments the analysis contained in Pierdzioch et al. (2012, 2013) who concentrate on whether forecasters tend to herd. This paper examines one-year-ahead forecasts, provided by Consensus Economics, covering a total sample period of 1989 to 2012. The focus of our paper is initially on the overall accuracy of the forecasts of US housing starts. Using conventional measures of forecast accuracy we consider the overall performance of the professional forecasts over the course of the an extended cycle. Using a panel framework we then consider the rationality (i.e. bias and efficiency) of the forecasts based upon the Holden & Peel (1990) framework. Finally, building upon papers such as Fulerton et al. (2000, 2001) and Stevenson & Young (2007), we compare the accuracy of the published forecasts with econometrically estimated forecasts." @default.
- W2244287152 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2244287152 creator A5015187950 @default.
- W2244287152 creator A5021959547 @default.
- W2244287152 date "2014-06-25" @default.
- W2244287152 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2244287152 title "Rationality, Bias and Accuracy in Housing Start Forecasts" @default.
- W2244287152 doi "https://doi.org/10.15396/eres2014_80" @default.
- W2244287152 hasPublicationYear "2014" @default.
- W2244287152 type Work @default.
- W2244287152 sameAs 2244287152 @default.
- W2244287152 citedByCount "0" @default.
- W2244287152 crossrefType "proceedings-article" @default.
- W2244287152 hasAuthorship W2244287152A5015187950 @default.
- W2244287152 hasAuthorship W2244287152A5021959547 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C10138342 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C106159729 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C120954023 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C162118730 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C162324750 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C17744445 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C199539241 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C201717286 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConcept C82279013 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C10138342 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C106159729 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C120954023 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C149782125 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C162118730 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C162324750 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C17744445 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C199539241 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C201717286 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C41008148 @default.
- W2244287152 hasConceptScore W2244287152C82279013 @default.
- W2244287152 hasLocation W22442871521 @default.
- W2244287152 hasOpenAccess W2244287152 @default.
- W2244287152 hasPrimaryLocation W22442871521 @default.
- W2244287152 hasRelatedWork W1573722154 @default.
- W2244287152 hasRelatedWork W1999668751 @default.
- W2244287152 hasRelatedWork W2015423359 @default.
- W2244287152 hasRelatedWork W2030617584 @default.
- W2244287152 hasRelatedWork W2048535202 @default.
- W2244287152 hasRelatedWork W2207657887 @default.
- W2244287152 hasRelatedWork W2391246540 @default.
- W2244287152 hasRelatedWork W2899084033 @default.
- W2244287152 hasRelatedWork W3121451477 @default.
- W2244287152 hasRelatedWork W3122572501 @default.
- W2244287152 isParatext "false" @default.
- W2244287152 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W2244287152 magId "2244287152" @default.
- W2244287152 workType "article" @default.