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- W2247382839 abstract "In engineering geology, people often labor to standardize and quantify techniques and methods utilized in the solution of critical problems. Applications related to the field of petroleum technology are certainly no exception. For example, risk analysis of petroleum exploratory projects and prospects is often arbitrary and biased. The calculation of prospect risk introduced in this article is designed to remove subjectivity'' by establishing quantitative standards.'' The technique allows the same method of analysis to be applied to prospects worldwide. It may be used as introduced in this paper (as employed by the author) or as a model, since it possesses the flexibility to be modified by individual users as long as standards are internally defined and utilized by all members of an exploration team. Risk analysis has been discussed in much detail. However, an original method for establishing quantitative standards for risk assessment is addressed and introduced in this paper. As defined here, prospect risk (described as the probability of success'' or Ps'') is the product of the following: Ps = (Trap) [times] (Reservoir) [times] (Source) [times] (Recovery) [times] (Timing). Well-defined, quantitative standards must be established if one is to remove subjectivity from risk assessment. In order to establish suchmore » standards to be used uniformly by explorationists, each of the above-referenced factors is individually evaluated and numerically defined utilizing the category and ranking system outlined in Table 1. If all five, independent parameters had individual values of 1.00, then the prospective venture would have an overall probability of success of 100 percent. Similarly, if all parameters exhibited values of 0.90, the overall chance of success would equal 77 percent. Values of 0.80 equate to 33 percent, values of 0.70 to 17 percent, values of 0.60 to 8 percent, values of 0.50 to 1 percent, and values of 0.30 to 0.2 percent.« less" @default.
- W2247382839 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2247382839 date "1994-12-01" @default.
- W2247382839 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2247382839 title "An engineering geology approach applied to objective risk analysis'' and for the quantification of the probability of success'' of petroleum leads'' and prospects''" @default.
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