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• W2252279517 abstract "With the reform embarked in the late 1980s, the economy of Vietnam has been increasingly integrated to the regional and global economy. Given rapid globalization developments in the world economy have had significant impacts on Vietnam’s economy and Vietnamese enterprises. Hence, it is essential to build a set of indicators which would serve the macroeconomic management and business operation purposes. Among such indicators, the early “warning indicators” are particularly important because they anticipate events that are likely going to happen to the economy. The paper presents the framework for building indices of business confidence and analyzes the current and future prospects of the Vietnamese economy for two major industries, the ‘manufacturing industry’ and the ‘commerce and services’. The study reveals that businesses in Vietnam have faced difficulties due to a fall in demand for goods and services, decrease in profits and revenue, and limited capacity utilization. Businesses in the ‘manufacturing’ have been more optimistic than the ‘commerce and services’ in many aspects, including general economic conditions, employment and finances. The findings pertain to the policies promoting technical upgrading, access to finance and penetrating external markets to maintain competitiveness of the domestic firms and boost business confidence in the country. 1.Introduction Vietnam is a small and open country whose economy is exposed to the * Director, Department of World Economy, National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecast, Ministry of Planning and Investment, S.R. of Viet Nam † Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University 国 際 協 力 論 集 第 23 巻 第 1 号 2 world’s economic developments. Vietnamese enterprises have been more and more participated in the global production network. The prospect of economic development, such as economic growth; economic stagnation; economic recession or economic crisis; can be identified using a set of appropriate economic indicators. Given the frequent (sometime unpredictable) changes of the global and domestic economy, it is essential to build a set of indicators to serve not only the Government for macroeconomic management purposes, but also the domestic enterprises to meet their business operation purposes. Among such indicators, the early “warning indicators” are particularly important because they anticipate events that are likely going to happen to the economy. Business Confidence index (BCI) is one of the most important early warning indicators. The BCI is calculated based on monthly and quarterly surveys on business conditions and business expectations of business executives and entrepreneurs (called Business Confidence Survey BCS). The BCI is a short term early warning system to forecast the trend of the economy, in which the diffusion index of business confidence is one of the most important indicators that anticipates development in the immediate future. In addition, from a Business Confidence Survey (BCS), a Present Business Situation Index (PBSI), which reflects the present business situation of enterprises, can be calculated. These surveys, also known as business opinion or business climate surveys, ask firm managers about the current situation of their business and about their plans and expectations for the near future. The survey results would not only help identify the business environment for firm owners, but also be used to analyze and formulate the macroand micro-economic policies and strategies, and evaluate the economy’s health and the relationship between business environment and the financial sector. In other words, the BCI would anticipate the perception of the business community on the future prospects, future plans on capital investment and employment of corporations, expectations on the power of prices and the impacts of price on demand (which is closely related to the price elasticity of demand), and the evaluation of various industries on the future business prospects of firms. Furthermore, this indicator would also help international investors and multinational enterprises’ executives have a general picture on Vietnam’s business activities in the Business Confidence Index : A Reflection of Business Sentiment in Viet Nam 3 coming months so that they could make the suitable decisions on their investment and business activities in/with Vietnam. The main objectives of this paper are (i) to present the construction of the Present Business Situation Indices (PBSIs) and the Business Tendency Indices (BTIs) by means of a Business Tendency Survey in Vietnam; and (ii) to apply these indices to analyze the current and future prospects of the Vietnamese economy for two major industry groups: the ‘manufacturing industry’ and the ‘commerce and services’. These indices of the present situation and future tendencies are essential for the Vietnamese government to effectively manage the national economy and formulate sound policies, and for the private sectors to supervise their business activities. The remaining of the paper is organized as follows. Session 2 describes the business confidence survey in terms of the sampling, scope, scale and timing. The framework and methodology for constructing indices of business confidence and the processing of the results are presented in Section 3. Applying the indices of business confidence, Session 4 discusses business sentiment and confidence in Vietnam, with an emphasis on the ‘manufacturing industry’ and the ‘commerce and services industry.’ Session 5 provides major conclusions and some policy implications for the public and private sectors. 2. Framework of Business Confidence Survey The Business Confidence Index is very popular in many countries, including East Asian Countries, OECD member countries and non-OECD member countries. The implementation of the BCS has become more standardized, as the OECD has developed a system of harmonized business tendency surveys (the same as BCS), which have been applied in many transition countries in Europe and adopted by many other economies (OECD, 2003; Ronny Nilsson, 2000). Vietnam, without exception, also uses the OECD method for building the BCIs and PBSIs. 2.1 Sample selection The sample selection was implemented in the following three stages: Stage 1: As there was no data on GDP by province, three representative provinces/cities with the largest shares of net business and production revenue of 国 際 協 力 論 集 第 23 巻 第 1 号 4 firms and the largest number of firms were selected in each of the three main regions (the North, the Central and the South), namely Hanoi city, Danang city and Ho Chi Minh city. The total net production and business revenue of firms in these three cities were used to calculate the share of the net production and business revenue of each city to the total revenue. Based on these shares, the number of surveyed firms in each city was identified. Stage 2: The GDP of the ‘manufacturing industry’ and ‘commerce and services industry’ were calculated (with 3 activities including ‘wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles’; ‘transportation and storage’; and ‘accommodation and food service’ activities). Next, the share of GDP of each industry to this total GDP was calculated in order to identify the number of surveyed firms in each industry. For the ‘commerce and services industry’, the number of surveyed firms in each sub-industry was calculated based on the share of GDP of each sub-industry to total GDP of the industry. For the ‘manufacturing industry’, because there was no data on GDP for each sub-industry (with 4 activities including ‘manufacture of food products’; ‘manufacture of textiles’, ‘manufacture of wearing apparel’, ‘manufacture of leather and related products’; ‘manufacture of computer’, ‘electronic and optical products’; and others), the data on industrial production value of each sub-industry was used to calculate the share of each sub-industry to the total production value of the industry. Then, based on these shares, the number of surveyed firms in each sub-industry was identified. Stage 3: The firms in each sub-industry of these two industries were grouped into different scale levels. For each scale group, the firms were selected randomly. Based on the selected sectors mentioned above, the survey was conducted in terms of a random sample by stratifying the universe (population) into three groups that have similar variance with regard to the key variables covered in the survey. Strata are defined in terms of the size of firms and the kinds of activities in which they are engaged. According to the experience of OECD countries, about 30 reporting units are sufficient to obtain an acceptable level of precision for each stratum for which data are to be published. In practice, this is a maximum as a few very large firms for which two or three responses might suffice when dominating some kinds of activity (OECD, 2003, p.22). Therefore, the sample has been selected ensuring two Locality/Industry Manufacturing Commerce and services Total" @default.
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• W2252279517 title "Business Confidence Index : A Reflection of Business Sentiment in Viet Nam" @default.
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