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- W2257194213 abstract "A rebuttal is made against cornucopian fallacies perpetuated by Herman Kahn and Julian Simon who emphasize the omission of critical issues that concern environmentalists. There are limits to population growth and the debate between environmentalists and has become political. Not doing anything represents a positive of little government interference and a yearning for more permissive economic and political practices. Cornucopians out a lot of faith in being able to predict the future yet they ignore causation and past economic trends mechanically. Evidence that doesnt fit their theory is rejected and analysis is static and noninteractive. Cornucopians understate the implications of geometric growth and place faith in uninterrupted technological progress. Each of these positions is discussed and rebutted. Kahns argument relies heavily on examples from the past to project into the future. However his mathematics obscures the relationship between family size growth and prosperity. His trend lines rely on the performance patterns of rich countries for the projection of poor countries when underlying factors were historically very different. His projection of gross national product (GNP) does not include an analysis of the components that generate GNP. There is agreement that mankind has improved but the scale of growth is a new phenomena. Human activity is changing the chemical composition of the very air we breathe. The cornucopians expend effort to generate doubts rather than to seek truth. Kahns examples of declining trends switch from source to source. Kahn admits to some environmental problems but then avoids focusing on them or attempting to place these problems in perspective. Thus environmental issues are slighted. The faith in infinite substitutability is not based on any systematic rationale. Social change is being forced to occur at a very rapid rate. Growth patterns are currently exceeding carrying capacity. Kahn fudges data by switching from projections based on current demand rather than on increasing demand. Technology also generates new problems. Both persuasions are needed in defining the problems and providing solutions for a sustainable Earth and population." @default.
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- W2257194213 date "1993-01-01" @default.
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- W2257194213 title "The cornucopian fallacies." @default.
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