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- W2260259333 abstract "This study investigates the circumstances in which business cycle forecasting is beneficial for business by looking at short-run and long-run aspects of the problem. We make a distinction between using publicly available information of cycle probabilities and the use of resources to sharpen this outlook. Whether relying on such a sharpened forecast pays off turns out to depend on factors like the variability in the spread of prices across the different goods a firm produces. For a longer-run perspective it is shown that firms whose optimal level of operation varies with varying selling prices will benefit from an unbiased assessment of the relative probabilities of the states of expansion and recession. We analyze petroleum refining in the U.S. as an exemplary industry. Econometric findings regarding the procyclical nature of prices indicate that this industry should benefit from both the short-run as well as the long-run assessment of business cycle frequencies." @default.
- W2260259333 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2260259333 date "2015-01-01" @default.
- W2260259333 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2260259333 title "Should Business Rely on Business Cycle Forecasting?" @default.
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- W2260259333 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2671167" @default.
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