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- W2262900908 abstract "Dimensionless rainfall depths are estimated for New Zealand, treated as three regions, for durations from 1 to 72 hours and return periods from 10 to 1,000 years. Data from individual gauges or sites are modelled using the General Extreme Value distribution. On average some 70% of sites follow an Extreme Value type 1 distribution, 27% EV2 and 3% EV3. Regional data are modelled by the Kappa distribution and show that dimensionless depths decrease slightly with duration, with the largest values for each return period occurring in the South Island East Region, intermediate values in the North Island Region and smallest values in the South Island West Region. As this study is exploratory, derived values of dimensionless rainfall depth may be employed as a rapid check on High Intensity Rainfall Design System (HIRDS V3) estimates up to return periods of 100 years; and for greater return periods as indicative values in design. At locations where only the mean annual rainfall is known, rainfall depths may be calculated for specified return periods from 100 to 1,000 years using our dimensionless depth values, and donor sites with suitable rainfall records. Problems with employing estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are reviewed and their use in design is not recommended. A PMP value for a 24-hour rainfall in Christchurch is likely to have a return period of the order of 104 years. Envelope curves for maximum recorded rainfall depths and for dimensionless rainfall depths are presented. World rainfall depth maxima are from two to three times larger than the New Zealand values for durations from 10 minutes to 1 year. Allowance for the effects of humaninduced climate change should be made when using the results of this study, as it is based on rainfall measurements from the interval 1961-2012, which exhibit no trends. Further work on filling gaps in rainfall records, so as to increase the rainfall database, should allow more precise definition of dimensionless rainfall depths for return periods exceeding 1,000 years." @default.
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- W2262900908 date "2014-01-01" @default.
- W2262900908 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2262900908 title "Towards prediction of extreme rainfalls in New Zealand" @default.
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