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• W226722022 abstract "This time, banks are dealing from a position of strength Mid-year, the lending climate of 2001 is perhaps best defined in a single word--cautious. Challenged by a stubbornly slowing economy, U.S. banks have kept a watchful eye on a host of issues, ranging from corporate and personal bankruptcies to fluctuating equity prices and corporate profit warnings to manufacturing layoffs. If at the end of 2000 you had asked when the economy would begin to turn around, the general response would have been sometime in the first half of 2001, says Kevin Blakely, executive vice-president and chief risk officer at KeyCorp. If you followed up on that question today, you probably wouldn't get the same response. subsequent concern, of course, involves credit quality, which Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Marni Pont O'Doherty says could weigh on banks the rest of the year. While concerns have focused so far on banks' business lending activities, any continued economic deterioration could negatively impact other areas, such as consumer credit and commercial real estate. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said at a June Senate Banking Committee hearing that loan quality was eroding amid a soft economy. Many of the traditional quantitative and qualitative indicators suggest that bank asset quality is deteriorating and that supervisors therefore need to be more sensitive to problems at individual banks, both currently and in the months ahead, Greenspan said. Noting that we are fortunate that our banking system entered this period of weak economic performance in a strong position, Greenspan added that borrowers in the retail, manufacturing, health care and telecommunications industries had been especially affected by the slowdown. However, within the backdrop of these trends, Greenspan also cautioned bankers against overreacting and tightening lending standards for new loans in a way that could choke off credit. Information released in June seemed to support the view that a sluggish economy may be sticking around longer than economists had hoped. A key area of attention is manufacturing. Statistics released in June showed that U.S. manufacturing activity plummeted in May, the eighth straight monthly decline. Operating capacity declined to 77.4% -- lowest level since '83. outlook moving forward will depend on banks' internal policies as well as external factors that are outside the control of the industry. A more troubled credit environment could reinforce fears of making mistakes and taking any type of credit risk should the economy deteriorate further. On the flip side, institutions that were successful in maintaining credit discipline in giddier times would be able to sustain origination volume during tougher economic cycles. A Fed survey of senior loan officers commissioned earlier this year revealed that over 50% of banks interviewed had tightened their lending standards for large commercial borrowers while more than 40% had done so for small businesses. Some of their strategies included charging higher interest rates for borrowers, developing more stringent loan covenants or stepping up collateral requirements. Better than the early '90s There are brighter elements to consider. For one thing, industry observers say that banks have made strides over the past decade in upgrading their underwriting systems and in differentiating levels of risk among borrowers. Asset quality still remains fairly good and banks are working to get problem assets off their books quickly, says Keith Leggett, senior economist with the American Bankers Association. The industry is in a much better position than it was in the early 1990s--it's better capitalized, it's profitable and banks' balance sheets are more diverse. I think the current credit challenges pale in comparison to what the industry saw in the early 1990s, says KeyCorp's Blakely. …" @default.
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• W226722022 title "Mid-Year Credit Check" @default.
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