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• W2271645073 abstract "Why does third-party intervention prolong civil war? To answer this question, we borrow a competitive hunters model from biology. The baseline dynamic model represents the growth and decay of competing groups during civil war. A second model incorporates biased intervention and predicts that when an intervener supports the government or the opposition, compared to non-intervention, its effect is to decrease the capability gap between the two groups, which in turn accounts for longer war. Without intervention, conflict runs its natural course: one group establishes superiority and wins a victory. Biased intervention, however, makes it difficult for one group to dominate. While a biased intervener supports one side, it produces backlash and the other side has a chance to mobilize resources to continue fighting. This backlash happens because biased interveners without the mutual consent of competing groups are likely to stimulate nationalist resistance and lead their protege to rely on them instead of the citizens. We empirically test the hypotheses using data for civil wars since 1944. We employ the two-stage probit least squares estimation method, considering that interveners may opt for tougher cases with narrower capability gap. Our findings show that there is a reciprocal causation between biased intervention and the capability gap of belligerents, and support our model's prediction that biased intervention yields unintended consequences." @default.
• W2271645073 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2271645073 creator A5064551297 @default.
• W2271645073 creator A5071980592 @default.
• W2271645073 date "2012-01-01" @default.
• W2271645073 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W2271645073 title "Breaking Natural Selection: A Dynamic Model of Civil War and Third-Party Intervention" @default.
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• W2271645073 hasPublicationYear "2012" @default.
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