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• W2275273889 abstract "The main purpose of this study is to estimate the potential output and Non- Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for Pakistan.The notion of potential output and NAIRU has received considerable attention in recent times as keeping down the rate of inflation, both in the developed and the developing countries, has become a center of monetary and fiscal policy discussion.The present work begins by reviewing the relevant literature on the subject to serve as a background to the main thesis and also to highlight the basic trends of thought on the subject.It is followed by a discussion of the problems and procedures involved in estimating time-invariant and time-varying NAIRU.The importance of the Kalman filter approach is emphasized here, even though the main burden of estimation falls on the production function approach.This approach, also known as unobserved component model (UCM) or state-space model, has been used by the OECD, the EU Commission and the area-wide model of the European Central Bank (ECB) to estimate the NAIRU and is gaining prominence in the literature.This is followed by an examination of the potential output and output gap of Pakistan over the estimation period from 1973-74 to 2007-08 using production function methodology with six other estimation techniques.A third part of the dissertation analyses the turning points of business cycles of Pakistan's economy and the expectations-augmented Phillips curve technique with different specifications.The estimation of potential output and NAIRU helps to determine the pace of sustainable growth, output gap and unemployment gap.It provides a key benchmark to assess the inflationary or disinflationary pressures to suggest as to when to tighten or ease monetary or fiscal policy.It also serves as a strong and objective analytical tool to determine the structural fiscal position of the government.To obtain reliable benchmark for unemployment rate this study concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Pakistan’s NAIRU.The estimate of the time-invariant NAIRU has been found to be 4.72 percent in overall sample period which was below the actual average unemployment rate.While the estimate for the time-varying NAIRU moves with time and from the time period 2003-04 to 2007-08 it was above the actual unemployment rate, suggesting that Pakistan's labor market situation most likely fuelled a rise in the inflation rate.The estimates of potential output and output gap using statistical, structural and semi-structural techniques show varied results.The average growth of potential output for the estimation period 1976-77 to 2007-08 ranged from 5.12 (Linear Trend) to 5.35 (Kalman Filter) percent.The average growth of actual output is approximately 5.24 percent.The estimated output gap using different methods gives an average benchmark range of -2.73 to 2.20 percent.Although various methods produce varied results, they provide fairly reliable picture of the over-all trend and performance of the Pakistan economy.This study finds that the output gap performance of production function method yields robust results in all specifications and contains significant information about average inflation in Pakistan.The study points to important and practical implications for the conduct of monetary, fiscal and labor policies in order to sustain long-run growth and employment creation without stoking the fires of inflation (or deflation).It is also noted that production processes tend to be capital-intensive.Now in a labor-surplus economy there is need for more labor-intensive techniques of production to avoid the possibility of jobless growth." @default.
• W2275273889 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2275273889 date "2011-01-01" @default.
• W2275273889 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
• W2275273889 title "Estimating Potential Output And Non-accelerating Inflation Rate Of Unemployment For Pakistan" @default.
• W2275273889 hasPublicationYear "2011" @default.
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