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• W2278595906 abstract "OF THE DISSERTATION The Predictive Focus Account of the Principle of Simplicity by Justin Sharber Dissertation Director: Branden Fitelson This dissertation presents an account of the Principle of Simplicity, a prominent idea in the philosophy of science. The principle states that when a simple model and a complex model both predict the data, and all else is equal, the data supports the simpler model more. The account, the “Predictive Focus Account,” states that simpler models are better confirmed in these contexts because they make narrower, more focused predictions. The introduction presents Principle of Simplicity and the Predictive Focus Account. It defines key terms and explains the dissertation’s methodology. This section also flags background issues that go beyond the scope of the dissertation. Chapter 1 investigates the philosophical history of the Predictive Focus Account, and the relationship between a model’s simplicity and its “global likelihood.” On this account, the explanation of the advantage of simplicity is grounded in relations of Bayesian confirmation between competing models. That is, the advantage of simplicity is a subtle, but inherent, feature of standard Bayesian model evaluation. This chapter argues that the Predictive Focus Account is incomplete without a method for fixing prior probabilities. It proposes a new approach to fixing objective priors, the “Data Window Prior,” grounded in experimental design. The proposed prior bounds the" @default.
• W2278595906 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2278595906 creator A5035947967 @default.
• W2278595906 date "2014-01-01" @default.
• W2278595906 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2278595906 title "The predictive focus account of the principle of simplicity" @default.
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• W2278595906 doi "https://doi.org/10.7282/t3th8p92" @default.
• W2278595906 hasPublicationYear "2014" @default.
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