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- W22791123 abstract "This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Gali, Smets, and Wouters (2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting performance. We consider two approaches for conditioning on such information. Under the noise approach, the mean professional forecasts are assumed to be noisy indicators of the rational expectations forecasts implied by the DSGE model. Under the news approach, it is assumed that the forecasts reveal the presence of expected future structural shocks in line with those estimated over the past. The forecasts of the DSGE model are compared with those from a Bayesian VAR model and a random walk." @default.
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- W22791123 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W22791123 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W22791123 title "Professional Forecasters and the Real-time Forecasting Performance of an Estimated New Keynesian Model for the Euro Area" @default.
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- W22791123 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2302512" @default.
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