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• W228351342 abstract "The article examines the difficulty of sustaining security as nuclear warhead capabilities and missile technologies continue to proliferate. The effort to utilize preemption as a means of preventing others achieving a nuclear offensive capability has floundered in Iraq, and an effective missile defense capability is still beyond our capacity. The Free World will have to rely on deterrence, otherwise known as mutual assured destruction (MAD), for several years to come. A problem exists, however, in that the American nuclear warhead industry has been degraded to such an extent that even ensuring the continued functionality of the existing stockpile of nuclear warheads is in doubt. It will be difficult and very expensive to recreate the capability to develop and produce new warheads if such are required. Key Words: Mutual Assured Destruction; Deterrence; Missile defense; Nuclear warheads; Proliferation; Preemption. Introduction When President Reagan introduced his Strategic Defense Initiative in 1983 his objective was to move the world away from a position of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) that had dominated the Cold War stand off between the Soviet Union and the West for over 20 years1. Now with the passage of a further 22 years and the demise of the former Soviet Union it is worth re-examining how effective the strategy has been. In a recent article reviewing the renewed concern of nuclear warhead proliferation, Henry Kissinger noted that as nuclear weapons spread into more and more hands, the calculus of deterrence grows increasingly ephemeral, and deterrence less and less reliable2. He noted that the spread of nuclear weapons, especially into regions of revolutionary upheaval, will produce a qualitatively different world whose perils will dwarf the worst nuclear nightmares of the Cold War. He suggested that such a world is all too likely to culminate in a cataclysm followed by an imposed international regime for nuclear weapons. It is that very cataclysm that President Reagan sought to avoid by the development of an effective anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defense. Unfortunately despite the expenditure of at least $100B since 1983 the dream of an effective ABM defense remains just that for the foreseeable future. This may seem to be a provocative statement at the time the U.S. is claiming that a missile defense has been deployed and will shortly become operational but even BMD's most vocal supporters acknowledge that only the first elements have been emplaced and that many years will elapse before a really effective defense will become available. Until space-based interceptor elements can be added to the ground and sea-based systems that are now coming on line it will not be possible to achieve the stated goals of intercepting missiles of all ranges during all stages of their flight3. Whether we like it or not it appears that we have to rely upon deterrence for several more years, but deterrence in this multi-polar world is very different from the MAD model that operated throughout the Cold War. The Effects of Proliferation We lived in a bipolar world when President Reagan first challenged the defense community to find a way to break the mold of Mutual Assured Destruction by using non-nuclear interceptors. At that time deterrence against first use was considered to be effective because both the Soviets and America possessed overwhelming numbers of missiles carrying nuclear warheads. Starting a nuclear war meant the almost certain destruction of both societies. Since the end of the Cold War, missile and unconventional warhead technology have proliferated. India and Pakistan have become undisputed nuclear powers, North Korea and Israel are assumed to have nuclear weapons and Iran is accused of seeking them. These and many more nations also have missile capabilities. The more countries that possess these type of systems the greater the possibility that some may fall into the hands of terrorist groups. …" @default.
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• W228351342 date "2005-07-01" @default.
• W228351342 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
• W228351342 title "Do We Still Live in a MAD World" @default.
• W228351342 hasPublicationYear "2005" @default.
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