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- W2286814891 abstract "To undertake climate change impact assessment studies we require the outputs of General Circulation Models (GCMs). Often due to time and computational constraints, only a subset of the available models and variables is used but we need to know if this subset is representative of the ensemble mean which in the absence of observations for a future climate, is often assumed to be the best predictor of the state of the system. A skill score has previously been derived to allow for the quantitative comparison of the outputs of GCMs across time and space. The skill score was applied to examine the performance of GCMs in different climatic regions of Australia. The skill score has now been extended and applied across the world using the outputs of the full suite of IPCC GCMs for a range of hydroclimatic variables. It was found that the temperature and surface pressure show the most agreement across all the GCMs at the global and regional levels. Precipitation projections for the future show little agreement between models, with the standard deviation of the model projections approximately 20% of the multimodel mean. In comparison the standard deviation of surface pressure and temperature projections is generally around 0.03% and 0.1% of the respective multi-model mean. Regional variations of the convergence of GCMs for precipitation highlight the uncertainties in the model predictions for mid latitude regions, particularly those with low average annual rainfall, e.g. Australia and the Sahara. It was also found that the pre processing bias correction step in deriving the skill score improves the convergence of the model projections of the future. The Variable Convergence Score (VCS) methodology is a simple method that can be quickly applied to assess the reliability of a subset of model results for different variables and different regions." @default.
- W2286814891 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2286814891 date "2009-01-01" @default.
- W2286814891 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W2286814891 title "World Wide Assessment of the Agreement of GCMs in the Prediction of Hydroclimatic Variables for the Future" @default.
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