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- W2293670632 abstract "Recent research highlights rapidly rising international reserves relative to GDP in many emerging market economies since the 1990s. According to many observers, these countries opted for new policy in the aftermath of crises consisting at accumulating international re-serves to insure themselves against future balance of payments crises (BOP). This paper (i) develops a decomposition method for the reserves accumulation process to investigate how much of the increase in reserves accumulated re°ects a deliberate adjustment of the reserves policy, as opposed to favorable but temporary external shocks. (ii) generates an empirical method aimed at assessing the adequacy of reserve holdings based on a new concept of BOP sustainability, and (iii) predicts, under current reserves policy, BOP crises forced by external shocks. Using the case of Mexico, our results suggest that more than two thirds of the variation in international reserves accumulation can be replicated by a linear combination of the external shocks, without an abrupt regime shift after the Tequila crisis. Moreover, according to our approach of BOP sustainability, Mexico has historically adopted an adequate reserves policy, with 1994 being an exception. However, under the current reserves policy, the probability of BOP crisis in the near future is quite high." @default.
- W2293670632 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2293670632 creator A5030539569 @default.
- W2293670632 date "2010-01-01" @default.
- W2293670632 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W2293670632 title "External Shocks and the Adequacy of Foreign Reserves: The Case of Mexico" @default.
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- W2293670632 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2742080" @default.
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