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- W230475563 abstract "OVERVIEW: All business decisions are based on forecasts about future markets, financial realities, operating environments, technologies, and a host of other relevant factors. Because the effectiveness of these decisions will depend, in large measure, on the validity of the forecast, it is highly desirable that managers and executives have practical ways for testing this validity. The two most common reasons for poor forecasts are the use of unreliable or outdated data and the use of inappropriate forecasting models. Techniques exist for testing forecasts for each of these shortcomings. Planning is, by definition, oriented to the future. No one makes dinner plans for last week. No successful manager is truly interested in the present, except with regard to how it can be changed for the future. Thus, all business plans, all financial plans, and all marketing plans are based on projections about how the future will unfold. These projections—forecasts—can be formal or informal, implicit or explicit, short term or long term. However, regardless of the type of forecast used in business planning, the success of the plan will, in large measure, depend on the validity of the forecast. Because of the importance of valid forecasts and because the people charged with making key business decisions typically rely, to a great extent, on forecasts made by others, it is essential that planners, executives and other decision-makers be able to assess the validity of various forecasts. In making such assessments, these people typically rely on the reputation of the forecaster, the results of past forecasts, or their personal comfort with the forecast. However, in many cases, a more formal assessment of a forecast can be of significant value to people who must stake their reputations and careers on its validity. The purpose of this paper is to" @default.
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- W230475563 date "2004-09-01" @default.
- W230475563 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W230475563 title "Testing the Tea Leaves: Evaluating the Validity of Forecasts: A Variety of Formal Methods Exist but Decision-Makers Should Also Apply a Systematic Assessment Framework" @default.
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