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- W2307488586 abstract "<title>Abstract</title> Future inflow to the irrigation scheme of the Syr Darya Basin is modelled under two climate scenarios, based on outputs of International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) core models run under IPCC-SRES A2 emission scenario. Under the GFDL99-R30-based scenario, the mean annual flow (MAF) is likely to increase by 10-20%. Under HadCM3-based scenario, MAF is supposed to decrease by 10-20%. Simulating water allocation in the basin in 2070-2099 shows that 14-21% of water demands in the agriculture sector in a normal hydrological year and 28-51% in a dry year are likely to be unmet. The challenges expected from future climate change can be paralleled to those resulting from the political change due to the collapse of the USSR, which left 18% (normal year) and 46% (dry year) of agricultural water demands unmet in 1992-2001. The study stresses the point that the adaptation measures employed in the post-Soviet transitional period are likely to serve as a basis for the future climate change adaptation strategies, since the development of the agriculture sector under climate change impact will remain handicapped without a more efficient water management at all hierarchical levels." @default.
- W2307488586 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2307488586 date "2016-01-01" @default.
- W2307488586 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W2307488586 title "Irrigated crop production in the Syr Darya Basin: climate change rehearsal in the 1990s." @default.
- W2307488586 doi "https://doi.org/10.1079/9781780643663.0176" @default.
- W2307488586 hasPublicationYear "2016" @default.
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