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• W2308542316 abstract "This paper studies the diusion of new drugs by assessing the role of physicians'dynamic learning stemming from the eects of the two information channels: …rms'marketing activities (e.g., detailing) and patients'experiences with their prescriptions. We use a physician-level dataset in the Erectile Dysfunction category that includes both prescription records and direct sales activities of …rms. Empirical evidence for physicians' forward-looking behavior comes from the positive relationship between the size of a physician's patient base and the extent to which (s)he engages in early prescribing of the new drug. Our data also suggest that physicians with large patient bases strategically substitute patient experimentation for learning from detailing visits. We develop a dynamic Bayesian learning framework that considers such forward-looking behavior and also accounts for dierences in learning across physicians. The framework allows us to estimate the true e¢ cacies of the two new drugs, Levitra and Cialis; physicians'initial belief on the e¢ cacies of the new drugs; the informative eect and the relative importance of both patient feedback and each …rm's detailing in physician's learning; and the persuasive impact of the incumbent Viagra's detailing. We …nd that accounting for forward-looking behavior improves the model …t and that a static model may provide incorrect inferences regarding the eects of detailing by ignoring strategic sub- stitution across multiple information sources in physician learning. Estimation results indicate that both channels contribute to physician learning in the early period of a drug's life cycle and that patient feedback contributes more to a physician's learning than does …rms'detailing. Given our …nding of a signi…cant dierence between the 2 new drugs in the eectiveness of their detailing, we investigate the consequences of heterogeneous detailing strategies for the …rms. Using our parameter estimates, we conduct policy experiments both from social welfare and business perspectives. We …nd that the new entrants'informative detailing activities bene…t consumers via faster diusion of the new drugs. From the …rm's perspective, if Cialis, which has the highest mean e¢ cacy, had followed Levitra's detailing strategy, it might have been able to achieve higher revenues." @default.
• W2308542316 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2308542316 creator A5007737502 @default.
• W2308542316 date "2010-01-01" @default.
• W2308542316 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2308542316 title "Physician Learning and New Drug Diusion" @default.
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• W2308542316 hasPublicationYear "2010" @default.
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