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- W2313303603 abstract "We study approximately 5.0 million stock picks submitted by individual users to the CAPS website run by the Motley Fool company (www.caps.fool.com). These picks prove to be surprisingly informative about future stock prices. Shorting stocks with a disproportionate number of negative picks and buying stocks with a disproportionate number of positive picks yields a return of over twelve percent per annum over the sample period. Negative picks mostly drive these results; they strongly predict future stock price declines. Returns to positive picks are statistically indistinguishable from the market. A Fama-French decomposition suggests that stock-picking rather than style factors largely produced these results." @default.
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- W2313303603 date "2015-01-01" @default.
- W2313303603 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2313303603 title "The CAPS Prediction System and Stock Market" @default.
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