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- W2313689246 abstract "This paper outlines a framework for incorporating uncertainty analysis into the conceptual design and evaluation of aircraft thermal management systems. As aircraft subsystems grow more complicated, integrated, and technology rich, there is an increasing need to understand how uncertainty affects subsystem performance early in conceptual design. Understanding the variation in subsystem performance during conceptual design can help integrated design teams make better subsystem technology and integrated architecture decisions. This information also facilitates setting subsystem technology requirements such that the desired vehicle level performance is met. The earlier the influence of uncertainty and risk can be quantified in aircraft system design the more it can impact architecture selection, component requirement definition, and development planning in a cost effective manner. However, quantifying the uncertainty of component performance, system requirements, boundary conditions, and other key parameters during early conceptual design presents unique challenges. The uncertainty associated with key parameters is often poorly understood and not quantified at this early design stage. The work presented was implemented within the Integrated Total Aircraft Power Systems (ITAPS) thermal management tool, Holistic Evaluation of Aircraft Thermal Systems (HEATS). HEATS is a thermal management system modeling toolbox developed in MATLAB by the United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) to enable rapid conceptual design of aircraft thermal systems within an integrated concurrent engineering environment. HEATS was modified to allow the rapid execution of Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods to determine the likely distribution of key system performance metrics given probabilistic inputs. The design and evaluation of a generic gas turbine engine fuel delivery and thermal management system is presented and the impact of parameter uncertainty on system performance and robustness is discussed." @default.
- W2313689246 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2313689246 date "2008-01-07" @default.
- W2313689246 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W2313689246 title "Probabilistic Analysis for Aircraft Thermal Management System Design and Evaluation" @default.
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- W2313689246 doi "https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2008-148" @default.
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