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• W2313795679 abstract "This paper contrasts two approaches in the continuing development of a science of public opinion..Each approach is ultimately grounded in a different tradition in the philosophy of social science. The differences are significant at the present time because they imply alternative methods of observation and analysis. Eventually, the differences may be significant in policy research. The more conventional approach assumes that the complexity of human behavior can be captured in causal or probabilistic covering laws, and that these laws can be used to explain the distribution of opinion at a point in time and movements of opinion. Familiar survey data and statistical techniques provide an appropriate methodological basis for investigating the possibilities. The less conventional approach assumes that an act of an individual or group is motivated, or goal directed, and can be understood by examining the particular context of the act as seen from the viewpoint of the actor in question. This approach implies data in addition to survey data to map the appropriate contexts; and it implies techniques of analysis that construe the signifilcance of an observation in terms of all other observations on the same context rather than all other observations on the same variable. Two substantive examples, each based on Lasswell's displacement hypothesis, are used to illustrate these alternatives. Public opinion is a familiar topic in social science, perhaps so familiar that we often overlook different tendencies in the underlying models used to analyze opinion surveys. For columnists, commentators, and others who interpret trends in opinion, the tendency is to attribute changes in opinion to events in the news or events that affect the public in more material ways. Thus McGovern's popularity declines because he appears to lack good judgment and decisiveness in the Eagleton affair. Or long lines at the corner gas station contribute to President Nixon's low approval rating even when Watergate temporarily disappears from the front page. Political figures, policies, and institutions are construed as products in a political market: The various alternatives rise" @default.
• W2313795679 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2313795679 date "1977-08-01" @default.
• W2313795679 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W2313795679 title "An Intentional Alternative to Public Opinion Research" @default.
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• W2313795679 doi "https://doi.org/10.2307/2110577" @default.
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