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• W2314515996 abstract "The increase in spacecraft reliability/usable life from using a prognostic and health management (PHM) program offers Space Command the tools to predict on-orbit space asset availability with certainty. The surprise failures of Space Commands AEHF-1 geostationary communications satellite and the GPS IIF-1 navigation satellite in 2010 demonstrates that Space Command cannot plan on having satellites available with certainty and so must rely on having excessive oversupply to ensure space asset services are available. Surprise equipment failures can be stopped by space-vehicle factory test personnel and onorbit mission operations engineers completing a prognostic analysis to identify the equipment with accelerated aging. A prognostic analysis includes a scientific analysis of the equipment telemetry that will illustrate any non-repeatable transient event (NRTE) in normal appearing telemetry from fully functional equipment. If an NRTE is present in the data, it can be used to measure equipment remaining usable, allowing personnel to predict equipment failures with certainty. Equipment that has experienced a NRTE will fail prematurely with 100% certainty. The procurement of Space Command satellites by the Air Force Space and Missiles Systems Center results in Space Command space missions that fail prematurely reaching failure rates as high as 25% per year. In 2010, 2 SMC satellites were launched and both suffered a premature failure, resulting in a 100% failure rate. Both were recoverable but the two failures demonstrate that AFSMC continues to procure satellites that will fail prematurely. To stop procuring equipment that will failure prematurely, the Air Force procurement contract personnel can add the requirement for space asset suppliers to identify the equipment that will fail prematurely for replacement by measuring the usable life of all on-board equipment and replace the equipment that will fail prematurely. Space Command space vehicle equipment that passes acceptance testing that fails prematurely from having at least one part with accelerated aging. These parts cannot be identified by the suppliers and so engineers resort to relying on dynamic environmental factory testing to identify the unreliable equipment for replacement. However, testing equipment does not identify the equipment that will fail prematurely and so testing is inadequate for producing equipment that will not fail prematurely. During dynamic environmental equipment testing known as ATP, only equipment performance is measured and equipment performance is unrelated to usable life so Space Command space vehicle equipment should be failing prematurely. Equipment mission life is not measured today; it is calculated using the stochastic equations from reliability analysis engineering whose results are unrelated to specific equipment usable life." @default.
• W2314515996 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2314515996 date "2011-06-14" @default.
• W2314515996 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2314515996 title "Predicting Space Command's Satellite Availability Using Proprietary Predictive Algorithms to Stop Premature and Surpise Equipment Failures" @default.
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• W2314515996 doi "https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2011-7334" @default.
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