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- W2318744504 abstract "In Particles and Waves [1], Peter Achinstein offers a formal proof that the incremental concept of confirmation associated with Bayes's theorem is not unrestrictedly true. Contrary to popular belief, Achinstein argues, it is not the case that successful prediction (or retrodiction) of observable phenomena always increases the probability of a hypothesis. Achinstein offers to counterexample the incremental concept by specifying conditions under which it would generate a contradiction. If his argument were correct, it would have far-reaching consequences for the philosophy of science. In particular, it would lend considerable support to the view advanced by Laudan [2] that information regarding rivals is always critical to the question of confirmation. But although his argument is valid, it is unsound: the contradiction arises not through any fault in Bayes's theorem but because of an inconsistency in Achinstein's initial conditions." @default.
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- W2318744504 date "1995-04-01" @default.
- W2318744504 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W2318744504 title "Two cheers for Bayes's theorem" @default.
- W2318744504 doi "https://doi.org/10.1093/analys/55.2.123" @default.
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