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• W2319843751 abstract "CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 62:115-129 (2015) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01267 Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the coastal region of Vietnam using RegCM4.2 Tan Phan-Van*, Long Trinh-Tuan, Hai Bui-Hoang, Chanh Kieu Department of Meteorology, VNU Hanoi University of Science, 334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam *Corresponding author: tanpv@vnu.edu.vn ABSTRACT: This study presents an experimental seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) activity for Vietnam’s coastal region during the 2012-2013 typhoon seasons, using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM, version 4.2) to downscale the global Climate Forecasting System (CFS) forecast. Using an improved vortex tracking algorithm that detects vortex centers efficiently, RegCM reasonably forecasts the general distribution of TC counts in time as well as the TC track pattern during the entire experimental period from February to July 2012 and 2013, despite significant underestimation of the TC counts in the global CFS forecasts that are used as initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RegCM model. Further examination of the storm activity in the Vietnam East Sea that directly influences Vietnam’s coastal region shows, however, that RegCM tends to overestimate the TC frequency in this sub-region compared to observation. This suggests that direct applications of the RegCM model for seasonal forecasts of TC activity in Vietnam’s coastal region has a significant bias that will need to be corrected before the model can provide useful information. KEY WORDS: Seasonal forecasting · Tropical cyclone · TC detection · Vietnam · Dynamical downscaling Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Phan VT, Long TT, Hai BH, Kieu C (2015) Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the coastal region of Vietnam using RegCM4.2. Clim Res 62:115-129. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01267 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 62, No. 2. Online publication date: January 14, 2015 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2015 Inter-Research." @default.
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• W2319843751 date "2015-01-14" @default.
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• W2319843751 title "Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the coastal region of Vietnam using RegCM4.2" @default.
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