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• W2322185174 abstract "Background: Tuberculosis continues to be the leading infectious disease threat in Malaysia. With recent spikes of burden following the newly intensified case finding programme introduced since year 2011 we estimated how much the national data reflected the actual burden hence objectively quantified the underrepresentation by using mathematical modelling technique. Methods & Materials: We reviewed tuberculosis pathophysiology and its transmission dynamic that best reflected reality at present which includes primary infection, endogenous reactivation and exogenous reinfection. We used the Malaysian national tuberculosis data from year 1990 till 2014 and constructed a deterministic compartmental model with SEIR structure and ordinary differential equation system. We took into account its unique characteristics on heterogeneity mainly age and gender. Model fitting, probabilistic sensitivity testing and uncertainty analysis were performed. Retrospective projection of the Malaysian tuberculosis cases estimated between year 1990 till 2014 were produced. The model then was compared with the observed data within similar years and further quantified how many cases were underrepresented. Results: A steady and higher increasing trend of tuberculosis cases were estimated from year 1990 till 2014 between 14,032 to 22,260 cases with annual incidence rate between 1.0% to 5.5% than the national observed number of cases between 11,702 to 24,711 cases with similar annual incidence rate. Further analysis showed underrepresentation rates ranging between 0.32% to 26.84% from year 1990 till 2014. Comparison between model estimates and the national observed number of cases from year 1990 till 2011 showed an annual mean case underrepresentation of 13.49% (95% CI: 10.40;16.58). A slightly lower annual mean case underrepresentation of 13.11% (95% CI: 10.39;15.84) was estimated from year 1990 till 2014 in line with the newly intensified case finding programme introduced since year 2011 onwards. Conclusion: We conclude that the current Malaysian observed data has an underrepresentation of tuberculosis cases ranging between 13.11% to 13.49%. This knowledge discovery is imperative to objectively complement current work on disease and economic management programmes for greater impact resulting from higher rates of case detection and treatment hence reducing incidence." @default.
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• W2322185174 date "2016-04-01" @default.
• W2322185174 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
• W2322185174 title "Quantifying tuberculosis burden and underrepresentation in Malaysia, 1990-2014" @default.
• W2322185174 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2016.02.752" @default.
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