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• W2323185328 abstract "Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions. Introduction The dangers posed by wildland fires, particularly in areas where the urban interfaces the rural, have led to numerous methodologies for mapping wildfire risk over the past two decades (Chuvieco 2003). Mapping wildfire risk requires not only an understanding of what factors contribute to the existence of a wildfire, but also a designation of the values actually at risk. Usually, this encompasses humans, human infrastructure, and human-valued ecosystems and ecosystem services. Given this human-oriented definition of risk, maps and mathematical models of fire risk fall primarily into two categories: the probability of an initial ignition; and, given that an ignition occurs, the potential for fire behavior conducive to fire spread. In both cases, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remotely sensed data have contributed significantly not only to spatially mapping fire risk, but also to understanding the relationships between con-" @default.
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• W2323185328 date "2007-01-01" @default.
• W2323185328 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W2323185328 title "Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach" @default.
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