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- W2334383742 abstract "Recently, Witt [7,8] suggested that one would expect to find a negative or inverse relationship between mean state loss ratios and standard deviations of the associated annual loss ratios by state for automobile insurance if underwriting risk (as measured by the standard deviation of loss ratios in a state) were properly included in insurance rates, other things being equal. However, based on an empirical test of this hypothesis, he found a direct rather than an inverse relationship between these variables. Hedges [3] later argued that the observed positive relationship could have resulted from a mathematical relationship between the average loss ratios and standard deviations and/or from certain institutional factors which affect loss ratios and insurance rates in the various states. Based on some empirical tests of economic and institutional factors, Witt [9] showed that Hedges' institutional hypothesis could not be verified. His regression results for the whole industry showed a positive relationship between the underwriting risk and return variables even after he included various economic and institutional variables in the regression model. The regressions for the direct-writing, national-agency, and regional-speciality companies also revealed a positive relationship between the means and standard deviations of loss ratios by state. Thus. the addition of some institutional variables to his regression model did not reverse the significant positive relationship between mean loss ratios and standard deviations by state. Accordingly, he argued that the perverse observed positive correlation could not be easily explained by differences in institutional factors among states.' In regard to Hedges' mathematical hypothesis, Witt [91 argued that if the annual loss ratios by state are normally distributed there should be no relationship between the averages and the standard deviations of these ratios because there is no mathematical relationship between the mean and variance of a normally distributed random variable. Witt indicated that the Central Limit Theorem would suggest that the annual loss ratio in a state should be normally distributed because it is nothing more than the weighted average loss ratio of all the companies writing a given coverage in the state. Hence, he argued the positive correlations he observed could not be reasonably explained by the" @default.
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- W2334383742 date "1982-12-01" @default.
- W2334383742 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2334383742 title "The Underwriting Risk and Return Paradox Revisited" @default.
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- W2334383742 doi "https://doi.org/10.2307/252764" @default.
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