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- W2337221820 abstract "transaction costs and taxes, which makes the speculator’s task more dicult, than it seems at the first sight. The design of profitable strategy is challenging and speculators use various methods to that. Two main streams are: the fundamental analysis and the technical one. The fundamental analysis assumes the actual price does not reflect the real price. Therefore it bases predictions on the analysis of the market state, actual news and activities of the institutions involved. In contrast, the technical analysis deals primary with price’s curves to predict the further price’s behavior. Classical investing methods based on the fundamental analysis (e.g. value investing [3] or indexing [2]) serve primary for a stock trading and for the long-time investment in terms of decades. The technical analysis [5], may provide a short-time profit, as the actions are recommended more often, i.e. one action per week or month, but most of methods of technical analysis are designed only for stocks. The futures contracts are special type of investment instruments, therefore their prices do not behave similarly to stocks prices: there are no strong long-time trends, the possible trends are usually short-time, if any. Up to the author’s best knowledge, none of the fundamental analysis or technical analysis methods is profitable at futures. Beside, if even exists any, it is not advertised everywhere and is kept in a strict confidence. The presented approach belongs to the technical analysis, because the main information, used to design the buying/selling strategy, originates from the price. The original task is reformulated as decision-making problem and is solved via dynamic programming (see [1]). The presented approach analyzes the task, because is has been shown that the futures trading has a lot of specific properties generally not respected by dynamic programming. The main contribution of the article is based on a comparison of: (i) the speculator’s strategy designed with the knowledge of the whole future price sequence and; (ii) the partial strategy designed with the knowledge of only a part of the future price’s sequence. The comparison leads to an analysis of changes in the enlarging sequence of the speculator’s actions with time. Two special indexes were designed for the comparison of two sequences of a dierent length." @default.
- W2337221820 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2337221820 date "2009-01-01" @default.
- W2337221820 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W2337221820 title "Futures Trading: Task Analysis" @default.
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