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- W2338117566 abstract "Several forecasters or bettors predict the probability of an event, and then make or receive payments contingent on whether the event actually occurred, and on their predictions. The payment functions thus generalize the scoring rule concept to a competitive, self-financed setting. We require schemes to be anonymous and label-independent, and to induce truthfulness. Among additively separable schemes with two forecasters, we show that logarithmic and quadratic scoring rules satisfy all requirements. Moreover, these schemes generalize to n forecasters in a natural way. Any such scheme constitutes a game of asymmetric information (because believed probabilities are private), but our scoring rules make truthful prediction a dominant strategy for every player." @default.
- W2338117566 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2338117566 date "2001-01-01" @default.
- W2338117566 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2338117566 title "Competitive Schemes that Induce Truthful Prediction" @default.
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