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- W2341240668 abstract "The paper presents a model of business cycles in which households are uncertain and learn about the long-run growth of endogenous variables (e.g., income, rental rates of capital). The model features comovement and mutual stimulation between households’growth expectations and market outcomes and suggests a critical role of shifting long-run growth expectations in business cycle ‡uctuations. Allowing for policymakers’imperfect knowledge and assuming their use of trend-cycle decomposition to learn potential output, the model suggests that during the Great Recession policymakers may have substantially underestimated the size of output gap and cyclically-adjusted budget balance. The latter implies that in the wake of the recent …nancial crisis excessive …scal austerity may have been forced on some EU countries when in fact it is not warranted. JEL classi…cation: E32, E62, D84" @default.
- W2341240668 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2341240668 date "2014-01-01" @default.
- W2341240668 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2341240668 title "Learning about Trends and Business Cycle Fluctuations" @default.
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