FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W2343273579> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W2343273579 startingPage "131" @default.
• W2343273579 abstract "(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)INTRODUCTIONFollowing a decade of anemic performance of manufacturing sector, the late 1990s marked a slow turn around for the sector especially following the introduction of business environment reforms such as fiscal incentives on export firms, and reforms on business registration and tax administration. Subsequently, improved political environment after the 2002 elections further improved the sector. For example, the sector grew steadily from 4.5 per cent in 2004 to 6.2 per cent in 2007. Manufacturing growth was, however, again compromised in 2008 following a chaotic electoral process, drought, oil price shocks, and the global financial crisis.Structurally, the sector appears unchanged with limited changes in productivity, sectors aggregate size in the GDP, uncompetitiveness, and sometimes use of dated technology. For example, Kenya's manufacturing is less competitive relative to countries such as China and India. In addition, In addition, Kenyan manufacturing firms hardly venture into research and development; rather rely on imported technology with limited development of innovative local technologies (Ikiara et al., 2002). Interestingly also, the sector is dominated by low-technology informal enterprises which constitute about 83 percent of enterprises (World Bank, 2004). Weaknesses in the sector still remain, for example: low productivity, over reliance on imported technology, and predominant production of low technology products.Even though this account of the evolution of the sector establishes a fairly resilient sector, there is limited information of its future performance. Undoubtedly, we are unaware of any study that uses available historical information to forecast future performance of sector. This is what this study accomplishes by setting up an econometric based framework to predict medium term output of this sector. Forecasts for the sector will greatly complement the broader forecasts of economic aggregates from the KIPPRA Treasury Macro Model, and continually inform policy makers through various reports.While its structural stability and possible resilience provides a useful forecasting scheme of the future evolution of the sector, the sectors time path may present forecasting challenges. Recent 2003-2007 turnaround which saw the sector grow by 4.7 percent in 2005, and 6.9 percent in 2007 was affected following the 2008 post-election disturbances and drop in manufacturing demand associated with the global economic and financial crisis. Despite these challenges, the analysis of the sectors historical trends can help make at least conservative future forecasts of the sector performance which can readily be used to inform medium term government policies for the sector and broadly for the long term Vision 2030.This paper traces the historical evolution and output performance of the sector leading to its current status and estimates several models that form the basis for forecast of its performance in the medium term. The estimated models assume that evolution of the output of the sector is influenced by labour and capital in a basic production function. The forecasts are based on assumed structural stability of estimated coefficients of manufacturing output and non-stochastic errors in the forecasts. The following section reviews pertinent developments in the manufacturing sector over time; Section 3 presents literature review while Section 4 presents the methodological framework. Section 5 discusses data sources and results, while Section 6 concludes.REVIEW OF MANUFACTURING SECTOR AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCEThe development of Kenya's manufacturing sector after independence was marked by substantial government involvement through promotion of import substitution - a key feature of the effort to indigenize industry. However, excessive inward orientation, the use of inappropriate technology, wrong choice of products, lack of production of intermediate and capital goods, dependence on imported equipment, and the largely catalytic effects of the sharp rise in oil prices in 1979 and the fall in international agricultural prices were some of the problems that precipitated the decline in Kenya's manufacturing sector. …" @default.
• W2343273579 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2343273579 creator A5026981364 @default.
• W2343273579 creator A5089038735 @default.
• W2343273579 date "2015-10-01" @default.
• W2343273579 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2343273579 title "FORECASTING KENYA’S MANUFACTURING OUTPUTWITH TIME SERIES DATA" @default.
• W2343273579 hasPublicationYear "2015" @default.
• W2343273579 type Work @default.
• W2343273579 sameAs 2343273579 @default.
• W2343273579 citedByCount "0" @default.
• W2343273579 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
• W2343273579 hasAuthorship W2343273579A5026981364 @default.
• W2343273579 hasAuthorship W2343273579A5089038735 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConcept C139719470 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConcept C144133560 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConcept C162324750 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConcept C204983608 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConcept C29122968 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConcept C2988460067 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConcept C34447519 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConcept C40700 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConceptScore W2343273579C139719470 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConceptScore W2343273579C144133560 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConceptScore W2343273579C162324750 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConceptScore W2343273579C204983608 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConceptScore W2343273579C29122968 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConceptScore W2343273579C2988460067 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConceptScore W2343273579C34447519 @default.
• W2343273579 hasConceptScore W2343273579C40700 @default.
• W2343273579 hasIssue "1" @default.
• W2343273579 hasLocation W23432735791 @default.
• W2343273579 hasOpenAccess W2343273579 @default.
• W2343273579 hasPrimaryLocation W23432735791 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W103688145 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W1495837457 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W1516058130 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W1568762958 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W1582004109 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W1825133455 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W2103250147 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W2170988814 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W2315452372 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W2493521532 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W2564376156 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W2996065333 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W3014664199 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W3021065740 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W3121237660 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W3188079158 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W35735233 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W1934849302 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W2595828957 @default.
• W2343273579 hasRelatedWork W3125836617 @default.
• W2343273579 hasVolume "27" @default.
• W2343273579 isParatext "false" @default.
• W2343273579 isRetracted "false" @default.
• W2343273579 magId "2343273579" @default.
• W2343273579 workType "article" @default.