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- W2344752010 abstract "Le projet CASSANDRE a pour but d'anticiper l'evolution de la vegetation dans les Alpes-Maritimes afin d'identifier les zones naturelles a proteger d'ici2100. La premiere etape consiste a regionaliser les sorties du modele climatique ALADIN-Climat du CNRM afin de renseigner localement l'evolution attendue des precipitations et temperatures minimales et maximales a l'horizon de la fin du XXI eme siecle. En croisant des variables predictives decrivant au mieux l'environnement physique avec les temperatures en sortie du modele ALADIN-Climat, des modeles de regressions multiples sont etablis mensuellement pour la periode 1961-1990. Les resultats obtenus offrent des residus acceptables au regard du changement d'echelle opere (passage de 12 km de resolution a 90 m). Ainsi la meme methode est employee pour affiner la resolution spatiale des modelisations climatiques futures (2071-2100) selon les trois scenarios A2, A1B et B1. Mots-cles : modelisation climatique, descente d'echelle, regression environnementale Abstract: The CASSANDRE project aims at anticipating the vegetation evolution in the Alpes-Maritimes French region to identify natural areas to protect before 2100. The first step consists in regionalizing the outputs of the climate model ALADIN-Climat of the CNRM to locally evaluate the precipitations and the minimal and maximal temperatures trends at the end of the XXIst century. By crossing predictive variables that bestdescribe the physical environment with temperatures from the ALADIN-Climat model output, several models of multiple regressions are established monthly for the period 1961-1990. The obtained results give acceptable residues considering the scaling operated (from 12 km horizontal resolution to 90 m). Hence, the same method is used to refine the spatial resolution of the climatemodel simulated (2071-2100) according to three SRES scenarios A2, A1B and B1." @default.
- W2344752010 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2344752010 date "2013-09-03" @default.
- W2344752010 modified "2023-10-10" @default.
- W2344752010 title "DOWNSCALING STATISTIQUE DES TEMPERATURES ET DES PRECIPITATIONS 2071-2100 DU MODELE ALADIN-CLIMAT POUR LES SCENARIOS A1B, A2 ET B1 DANS LES ALPES-MARITIMES" @default.
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