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- W2353691567 abstract "Objective To explore the application of seasonal time series ARIMA model in prediction of measles incidence in Gansu province.Methods SPSS13.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly measles incidence of Gansu province from Jan.1995 to Dec.2006,with consideration of residual un-correlation and concision.AIC and BIC were used to confirm the fitness of model.The model was tested by the monthly incidence in 2007.Results ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12(not with)model was constructed,with significance of all parameter estimation and white noise for predicted error.While goodness-of-fit was the perfect,and parameter had no correlation.Conclusion The model exactly fitted the incidence of the previous monthly incidence and predicted the future incidence trend,ARIMA model predicting Measles incidence in Gansu province was feasibility." @default.
- W2353691567 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2353691567 date "2008-01-01" @default.
- W2353691567 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W2353691567 title "Study on the Feasibility for ARIMA Model Application to Predict Measles Incidence in Gansu Province" @default.
- W2353691567 hasPublicationYear "2008" @default.
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