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- W2354748507 abstract "In the context of globalization,multinational enterprises arrange production all over the world,so that the foreign commercial presences broaden the coverage of international trade. However,traditional statistical system of cross border trade,which is evaluated by resident-based method,take foreign commercial presences as residents in host country and activities of foreign direct investment enterprises can't be well reflected in the international trade statistics. Ownership-based method is considered as a kind of supplement for counties to provide international trade statistics. China is involved in globalization deeply where more than half of its surplus is created by the foreign affiliates located in China,half of which are wholly foreign owned firms. It is deemed that the cross border trade statistics can't show real trade balance of China and ownership-based statistics are needed. Although evaluating the trade balance of China based on ownership is an important work,lacking data is the difficulty faced by researchers. In recent years,the improvements of statistical system of foreign direct investment of China push us to perfect this work. In this paper,we integrated cross border trade in goods with the activities of foreign direct investment enterprises located in China and Chinese enterprises located abroad in an framework to compile the trade statistics based on ownership and analysis the trade imbalance of China. We finished the work creatively. First,we collected the available data which is published by several government organizations such as the National Bureau of Statistics,Ministry of Commerce and Administration of Foreign Exchange of China so that the data we used are the most abundant compared to the other similar works. Second,we define foreign affiliates in China according to the extent of influence or control of parent and then provide three kinds of coverage of evaluation which allow us to obtain conservative,median and inflated estimates. Third,we provide continually time series from 2006 to 2010 which allow as to analysis the dynamic change of trade statistics and the influence of financial crisis. Fourth,we show the method to compile ownership-based statistics from resident-based statistics so that we can analysis how foreign direct investment firms influent difference between the two kinds of method which allow us to compare different forces affecting the trade imbalance. Our evaluation results are thought-provoking. First,ownership-based trade statistics including import and export are higher than traditional cross trade which is different from the other researches before. The reason is that we use official statistics of activates of affiliates located abroad which is lack in other researches. These results show us that cross trade may underestimate the contribution for the world trade. Second,ownership-based trade balance are lower than traditional cross trade which is the same as the other researches before. It is further proof that the trade competition of China is not strong as we usually think. Third,the difference between the ownership-based trade and residence-based trade become bigger after the financial crisis. Traditionally,the cross trade balance decreased in 2009 which is a proof that China is no longer a country with huge trade surplus. Our work provides further evidence of ownership-based statistics to support this point of view. Moreover,China may face the problem of trade deficit since 2009. Fourth,the influence of foreign affiliates located in China is bigger than the China's affiliates abroad. More than 85% of difference between ownership-based and residency-based trade is induced by the domestic activities of affiliates. Their cross trade can explain only 15%. Although we try our best to provide more information about trade balance of China,there are some problems we need explain. Since lack of data,we can't divide China's affiliates abroad as wholly foreign owned and controlled by parent. So the different coverage of estimation in the paper is limited. It is feasible,not perfect method to solve the complex ownership problem which is a difficulty discussed about ownership-based methods. Nonetheless,we believe that considering the influence of FDI is important when evaluating the trade balance." @default.
- W2354748507 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2354748507 creator A5025237676 @default.
- W2354748507 date "2013-01-01" @default.
- W2354748507 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2354748507 title "Evaluation on the Goods Trade Balance of China with the Influence of FDI: 2006 ~ 2010" @default.
- W2354748507 hasPublicationYear "2013" @default.
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