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• W2358276504 abstract "With the boom in China's economy,the issues related with environmental degradation arising from excessive consumption of energy and with the greenhouse effect incurred owing to soaring CO2 emissions have already drawn an extensive attention in the nation and even around the world. In 2007,China replaced the U. S and became the country that had emitted the largest volume of carbon in the world. As committed in the Copenhagen Climate Negotiation Conference,China's government declared to implement the carbonreduction plan,specifically decreasing CO2 emissions by 40- 45% each unit GDP till 2020,compared with that in 2005. Referring to the above-mentioned target and comparative analysis of terminal energy consumption in six economic sectors in China,this article applies LMDI decomposition model and decomposes the increment change of carbon emissions into four effects,represented by economy scale and industrial structure. In accordance with the decomposition result,a long-term co-integration equilibrium equation is built to clarify four variables such as carbon emission and economic growth,which is followed by a Monte-Carlo-based simulation for China's carbon emission in 2020. As shown from LMDI decomposition,with respect to impact on the increase in carbon emissions,the country's economy scale really dominates; technological progress influences negatively; and industrial structure and energy structure have limited effect. Besides,the co-integration model demonstrates that these three factors of GDP,the proportion of coal consumption,and energy intensity are positively related to carbon emissions,while the proportion of the tertiary industry is negatively related. In addition,as explained by the Monte-Carlo-based simulation result,it is estimated that carbon intensity will reduce by 36% to 39% till2020,very close to the target of a decline of 40% to 45% proposed previously but unsatisfactory actually. This result also implies the fact that there is a long way for China to achieve the target under the current conditions of development path,energy-saving level,and energy-using technologies. Therefore,further efforts are needed to strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction. In the end,suggestions are proposed to help accomplish carbon-reduction targets stated in the 12 th Five-Year Plan as well as in Copenhagen Conference,covering four areas of idealizing industrial structure,improving energy efficiency,optimizing energy structure,and limiting carbon emissions legally and strengthening propaganda for energy conservation and carbon reduction." @default.
• W2358276504 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2358276504 date "2015-01-01" @default.
• W2358276504 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W2358276504 title "Factor Decomposition and Dynamic Simulation of China's Carbon Emissions" @default.
• W2358276504 hasPublicationYear "2015" @default.
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