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- W2359636887 abstract "Objective To present a method for forecasting popalation dynamics of Rattus rattoides in the Pearl River Delta. Methods Model of multiple seasonal, model of addition seasonal and ARIMA model were used to simulate the temporal variation dynamics of Rattus rattoides population and the corresponding model were established for the middle-term and long-term prediction. Results Model of multiple seasonal, model of addition seasonal and ARIMA model were satisfying to simulate the accumulation and disappearance tendency of Rattus rattoides population. Based on the models, the average errors of forecasting Rattus rattoides population were ( 6.43± 1.87 ), ( 10.34± 2.56 ) and ( 11.48± 2.78 ), respectively, and the accuracy rate of the emergence grade forecast were 91.67 , 83.33 and 66.67 , respectively. Conclusion Model of multiple seasonal and model of addition seasonal could be used to forecast the emergence dynamics of Rattus rattoides population with the predicted model of X(t)=(5.158 393 29-0.015 772 24t)γ_ T+t and X(t)= 5.181 308 46- 0.008 617 24t+ d_ T+t ." @default.
- W2359636887 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2359636887 date "2006-01-01" @default.
- W2359636887 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W2359636887 title "A Time Series Decomposed Model for Forecasting Dynamics of Rattus rattoides Population" @default.
- W2359636887 hasPublicationYear "2006" @default.
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