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- W2362137784 abstract "Based on the synchronization data of diarrhea disease and the meteorological observation in Haidian District of Beijing from June to September during 2004-2007,the relationship between the incidence of diarrhea disease and weather conditions was analyzed in terms of Classical Variance Contribution Analysis technology. The meteorological factors which have significant variance contribution were selected as forecast factors. The daily incident number of disease was divided into five grades by using multiple regression probability grade analysis, and the forecast models for different forecast periods were established withRegression Analysis method and were examined with historical independent sample tests. The results show as follows.(1)There was significant correlation between incident number of diarrhea disease and meteorological condition, especially for the factors of humidity、wind speed and temperature, and the proportion of variance contribution of vapor pressure was the highest.(2)The forecasting for 1~4 days had a good effect, and the exact correct rate for 1~2 days forecast was more than 40%, if the difference between the forecasted grade and actual grade was no more than 1, the mean exact correct rate was 98%." @default.
- W2362137784 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2362137784 date "2014-01-01" @default.
- W2362137784 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2362137784 title "Research and Application of Meteorological Index Forecast of Diarrhea Disease in Haidian District, Beijing" @default.
- W2362137784 hasPublicationYear "2014" @default.
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