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- W2362559987 abstract "Ecological environment is critical to socio-economy by underpinning human welfare. According to the past studies, the traditional models were built to assess the dynamic trends of ecological footprint(EF), by transforming the indeterminacy problems into determinacy ones. Apparently, the indeterminacy informations in the studied object was neglected. The Set Pair Analysis (SPA) has been proved to be an effective forecasting approach in an increasing number of application in the indeterminacy problems. However, too few applications have been reported in ecological modelling. In this paper, by a case study of time serial analyzing total EFs and related socio-economic factors of Wuhan, a dynamic model of SPA was built to forecast total EFs of that district during 2005 —2020. In order to build the SPA model, the authors put both total EFs and socio-economic factors together as a whole to deal with because ecological environment is closely connected with and interacts with socio-economy. According to prediction results, up to 2020, the district would have been bearing an accumulative total EFs of 28.74×106 hm2, which is near 2 times than that of 2003. Although the increase rate of GDP would be restricted in a lower level during the general planning 2005—2020, the urban ecological environmental load could not respond to the socio-economic circumstances promptly. Besides, in order to have a zero growth in total EFs from 2005 to 2020, while GDPs grows by the planning aims, the eco-efficiency should reach RMB 248035 yuan/ hm2 which is nearly out of question apparently. To avoid deterioration of ecological environment, the authors put forward a series of countermeasures to uphold the urban ecosystem. On the base of the case study, the authors also pointed out the validity of SPA in ecosystem prediction." @default.
- W2362559987 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2362559987 date "2007-01-01" @default.
- W2362559987 modified "2023-09-22" @default.
- W2362559987 title "Study on trend of urban ecology and environment based on Set Pair Analysis model:A case study of Wuhan" @default.
- W2362559987 hasPublicationYear "2007" @default.
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