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- W2364301034 abstract "The tropical cyclone ensemble forecast experiments are based on the GRAPES- TCM model,the Lagged Average Forecasting( LAF) and the Breeding Growth Mode( BGM) methods are combined to used for making the initial perturbations,which have been devided into three part to considered: the introduction of initial perturbation,the scaling down of environment region and the vortex region respecctively. The verification technique has been applied on the real time forecsts of 16 tropcial cyclones in 2008,including the ensemble mean,foreacast error,spread analysis and the relative skill score. The results indicate that: The average errors of ensemble mean track forecast are 231. 48 km( 24 h),386. 4 km( 48 h) and 632. 05 km( 72 h). Both the error of ensemble mean and the ensemble spread are incresed with the forecast leading time. On the contrary,the ratio of these two part is decresed. Most of the samples are well good obey the correlationship between the forecast error and ensemble spread,but there is still a little sample indicate the small spread with large error situation and the large spread with small error situation. The percentage of realative skill score which ensemble forecast performed better or the same is 66. 2%,especailly in the later time of model forecas. Futhermore,more attention should be paid on the situation when the ensemble system has different senarios,forecaster or user should aware of the uncertainty of the forecast and the likehood of the occurence,as well as the resluts for the event with small probability." @default.
- W2364301034 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2364301034 date "2014-01-01" @default.
- W2364301034 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2364301034 title "Study of Multiple Perturb Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast" @default.
- W2364301034 hasPublicationYear "2014" @default.
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