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- W2364731659 abstract "Objective Studying and verifying the effect of grey system GM(1,1) model applied to forecast disease incidence of hepatitis A(HA). Methods The grey system GM(1,1) model was applied to fit the data of disease incidence of HA of Handan city from 1998 to 2005,and forecast disease incidence of HA of 2006,which was used to check accuracy of the model. Results The residual error of the model fluctuated from 0.02 to 0.65,and the relative error from 0.36% to 19.7%.It was thus evident that the fitting precision of the model was high,and the fitting effect was satisfactory.The predictive value of 2006 was only 0.006 4 lower than the disease incidence of actual reporting,which illustrated that the model was fit to forecast the disease incidence of HA. Conclusion The GM(1,1) model was competent to forecast disease incidence of HA." @default.
- W2364731659 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2364731659 creator A5035432664 @default.
- W2364731659 date "2009-01-01" @default.
- W2364731659 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2364731659 title "THE STUDY OF GM(1,1) MODEL APPLIED TO FORECAST DISEASE INCIDENCE OF HA" @default.
- W2364731659 hasPublicationYear "2009" @default.
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