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- W2376887183 abstract "Because of the buy-back of operation rights,it needs long-term visitor arrivals forecasting. In order to overcome the uncertainty of long-term forecasting,we use combinatorial forecasting model based on LOGISTIC model which considers environmental capacity and iterative demand model which considers the tourism demand to forecast visitor arrivals.The former contains the constraint parameters of environmental capacity,mainly based on supply constraints and time-series data.The latter mainly based on per capita income,price level,price elasticity and income elasticity.Then we integrate the two models for combinatorial forecasting.We get the visitor arrivals of combinatorial forecasting model through the weighted sum of the LOGISTIC model and iterative demand model,which solve the long-term prediction of multi-factor well.These factors are:environmental capacity,effect of application for World Natural Heritage,the change of visitor arrivals before and after highway construction,rules of visitors time-series,per capita disposable income of tourists source region,attraction and life cycle of tourist destination.The predicted results have been adopted by government as the main basis for determining the amount of compensation for buy-back of operation rights." @default.
- W2376887183 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W2376887183 date "2011-01-01" @default.
- W2376887183 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W2376887183 title "Long-term Forecasting of Tourism Demand in Wulong Scenic Area Based on Combinatorial Model" @default.
- W2376887183 hasPublicationYear "2011" @default.
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