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- W2382509772 abstract "This paper examines the decade-long economic slump in Japan during the 1990s. In the neoclassical growth framework, a fall in total factor productivity growth is expected to slow down the economy's long-term growth. This paper's findings based on the Malmquist index show that Japan's productivity growth rate in the 1990s is not only historically low but also lags considerably behind the contemporaneous growth rates in other OECD nations. Building upon the Japanese experience, this paper considers policy responses to the current global financial crisis. When a number of countries pursued expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, ubiquitous references were made to what had happened to Japan in the 1990s. In discussions of this so-called lost decade, the persistent economic slump was typically blamed on the weak demand. Inadequate fiscal and monetary policies were believed to have exacerbated such weaknesses. 1 The problems with financial intermediation in the country's weak banking sector were also argued to have contributed to the slump by pulling corporate investment below its optimal level and hence, again, by depressing aggregate demand. However, recent studies increasingly question the validity of the thesis of sub-optimal investment. Ando, Christelis, and Miyagawa (2003) provide empirical evidence in support of the over-investment, rather than the under-investment, of Japanese corporations in the 1990s. Hayashi (2004) empirically verifies this over-investment argument by using more updated data from the Japanese National Accounts. These findings strongly suggest that demand side developments may account for business cycles but may not be entirely relevant for explaining the chronic decade-long economic slump. How would the over-investment hypothesis marry with Japan's decade-long output slump? The neoclassical growth framework provides a clue. In the standard neoclassical model with exogenous total factor productivity (TFP) that dates back to Solow (1956) and Swan (1956), a fall in the TFP growth rate reduces the pace of the steady-state growth, and raises the steady-state capital-output ratio. This appears to be in line with a significant capital deepening and a decline in the after-tax rate of return that have been observed in Japan during the 1990s. A noticeable drop in Japan's TFP growth in the 1990s is well-documented in previous studies, including Hayashi and Prescott (2003) among others, but they tend to invariably use" @default.
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- W2382509772 date "2011-01-01" @default.
- W2382509772 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2382509772 title "Japan's Lost Decade Revisited: Total Factor Productivity and Economic Growth" @default.
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