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• W2382700565 abstract "Climate change and its impacts receive great concern in both global and regional scale.In China,the impacts in arid and semi-arid areas in northern China bear greater attentions due to the vulnerable ecosystem and higher magnitude of climate change in these areas.Agriculture in northern part of China with vulnerable ecosystem is becoming more susceptible to climate change in the future.By using the modeling approaches,we investigated the impacts of climate change on irrigated maize production in two typical vulnerable basins: Shiyang River basin and Daling River basin.Regional climate model PRECIS(Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CERES(Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis)-Maize crop model were linked to simulate irrigated maize growth under baseline(BS,1961-1990) and two climate change scenarios(A2 and B2 2011-2100).Day to maturity,yield,evapotranspiration(ET) and irrigation demand are retrieved from simulations to analyze the responses of maize growth to climate change.Changes in monetary benefits of maize production are estimated based on simulated yields,inputs and assumed unchanged prices.Possible adaptation options are prescribed according to the changes in yields,benefits and climate.Results demonstrate that climate change poses negative influences on maize production in the two basins,indicating by increased possibility of lower yields and enhanced yield variability,consequently induces farmers' monetary loss in maize cultivation if present agronomic practices are kept unchanged in the future.Climate change scenario A2 produces greater negative effects than B2,particularly in the 2080s,due to its higher magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation.CO2 fertilization effect mitigates the decreases in yields and reduces the yield variability to some extent,which is explained by the increased photosynthesis and decreased ET under higher CO2 concentration.ET and irrigation demand during the whole maize growth period are simulated to decrease in the future in the two basins.The decreases become substantial when including the CO2 fertilization effect in the simulation.These decreases in ET and irrigation demand might alleviate the water scarcity in the two basins,partially help to resolve the water unbalance between supply and demand.Based on the simulation results,possible adaptation measures such as new maize cultivation with longer growth period,later sowing,etc.are suggested for the basins.Uncertainties lie implicitly in the study,including climate change scenarios,crop model and processes related to simulation,and neglecting some important responses,such as automatic adaptation of crop to climate,etc.which need further investigating in the future." @default.
• W2382700565 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2382700565 creator A5053835044 @default.
• W2382700565 date "2011-01-01" @default.
• W2382700565 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W2382700565 title "Impacts of climate change on irrigated maize production in Shiyang and Daling River Basins" @default.
• W2382700565 hasPublicationYear "2011" @default.
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